While often a true indicator of a team’s rhythm, form guide can be a tricky marker. Sri Lanka have lost only to India (twice) in the last 16 ODIs they’ve played in the lead up to the 2023 World Cup, but that impressive run includes an unbeaten campaign at the Qualifying event where the competition wasn’t half as fierce as what they’re about to come up against in the next five weeks.

Then again, they’ve shown spunk, they’ve shown big-match potential, and they’ve won (some of the) games that nobody gave them a shot at. Case in point, the stiff fight they put up to clinch a last-ball thriller, knocking Pakistan out of the Asia Cup 2023 even when they took the field without their strongest XI.

Youngsters like Dunith Wellalage and Matheesha Pathirana have been impressive in their nascent international careers thus far and their form will be crucial to Sri Lanka’s hopes in the absence of some more established names. Batting wise the top-six, followed by a currently out-of-form captain Dasun Shanaka, can pack a solid punch – at least on paper.

Their top-three is as good as any in the competition with vice-captain Kusal Mendis in a rich vein of form having scored a couple of 90s and another fifty in Asia Cup alone. Kusal Perera, on the other hand, is that aggressor at top though his injury scare one week out from their opening game will have the management worried. In Charith Asalanka and Pathum Nissanka, they have reliable hands. If Shanaka too can find his peak form timely and assume the typical role of power-hitting finisher, that deep a batting order will hold them in good stead.

Does that make Sri Lanka the dark horses? Realistically, no. The way they succumbed to 50 all out in the Asia Cup final, in home conditions, against India was probably an aberration but also a demonstration of how fickle their form is. At best, Sri Lanka could be the banana peel the mid-table contenders would need to be wary of.

Sri Lanka suffered a cruel blow to their World Cup campaign when ace all-rounder Wanindu Hasaranga and pacer Dushmantha Chameera had to left out of the final 15 after failing to recover from their respective injuries, denting their chances strongly at the competition. Irrespective, Sri Lanka is a team with proven individual match-winners who can take down any opposition on their day, but as a collective unit they lack the firepower to go all the way. Granted that the conditions in India would very much be home-like but, without undermining their potential, this Sri Lankan unit will likely count this campaign as a success if they can provide for a few scares/upsets in the first half and then find themselves alive at the business end of the competition for a spot in the top-four.

Squad:Dasun Shanaka (c), Kusal Mendis (vc), Kusal Perera, Pathum Nissanka, Dimuth Karunaratne, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Dhananjaya de Silva, Dushan Hemantha, Maheesh Theekshana, Dunith Wellalage, Kasun Rajitha, Matheesha Pathirana, Lahiru Kumara, Dilshan Madushanka

Probable XI:Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Perera, Kusal Mendis, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Charith Asalanka, Dhanajaya de Silva, Dasun Shanaka (C), Dunith Wellalage, Lahiru Kumara, Maheesh Theekshana, Matheesha Pathirana

The presence of Hasaranga would have made this Sri Lankan side a proper dark horse, and they will miss the services of the ace spinner who picked up an impressive 22 wickets in the Qualifier to help seal their World Cup berth. That said, spin is still their strongest suit and Sri Lanka may well be fielding a spin-heavy XI with just two seamers irrespective of conditions. It also helps that they’ve got two games each on the sluggish tracks of Delhi and Lucknow.

Keep an eye on: Pathum Nissanka

The Sri Lankan opener had a woeful time at the recently-concluded Asia Cup 2023 but has otherwise been mighty consistent with the bat in his ODI career thus far. Since the start of 2022 (excluding the Asia Cup), he had averaged over 53 with all of his nine fifties and three hundreds coming in the last 19 months.

Marquee Match

Sri Lanka’s unpredictability and the tendency to supersede expectations in multi-nation events recently cost Pakistan a place in the Asia Cup final. An encore as early as in the second game of the league phase could set Sri Lanka up really well for the remainder of the tournament. After going down in a final-ball nail-biter in what turned out to be a virtual semi-final, Pakistan too would be itching for redemption, making this an enticing rematch in both their itineraries.

Giant Killing Potential

The slowness of the Lucknow track could well play in Sri Lanka’s favour and the Asian team would fancy their chances of maybe an upset win when they take on Australia there.