Six rounds of league games done and dusted, we are yet to have a team to confirm their semifinal spot or book their return tickets. The current top four, who have settled in those spots for at least a week, are well placed to go through to the semis with enough buffer with the six bottom-placed sides. As for how things stand, 14 points assure teams of qualification while anything under eight points won’t suffice either. With two thirds of the league phase remaining, teams are not just scrambling for a semifinal spot, but also for a place in Champions Trophy 2025.
Here’s how things stand after the 30th match of the tournament between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
| TEAM | MATCHES | WON | LOST | POINTS | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 1.405 |
| South Africa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2.032 |
| New Zealand | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1.232 |
| Australia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0.97 |
| Afghanistan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -0.718 |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.275 |
| Pakistan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.387 |
| Netherlands | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1.277 |
| Bangladesh | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.338 |
| England | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.652 |
India
Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Netherlands
India is the only unbeaten side of the tournament so far and is best placed to become the first team to book their semifinal berth. A win would assure them of a spot while they can go through with even three defeats, should Afghanistan drop one game. The only farfetched scenario of them missing out, is five teams reaching 12 points (or more) and India lose out on NRR.
South Africa
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India, Afghanistan
Like India, South Africa too sit comfortably in the second place on ten points with five wins from six matches. Two wins should take them through while even one win should suffice for them for they are best placed when it comes to a tied NRR scenario as they are currently on +2.032. The worst case scenario for the Proteas is, them losing all three matches and all three of Australia, New Zealand, and Afghanistan going past the 10-point mark.
Australia and New Zealand
Remaining opponents (Australia): England, Afghanistan, Bangladesh
Remaining opponents (New Zealand): South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
New Zealand and Australia have taken different routes in the tournament so far with the former winning their first four and losing the last two while the latter having it the other way around. Two wins out of their last three should be enough for the Trans-Tasman neighbours as only Afghanistan among the teams below them can get to 12 points (Australia are scheduled to play Afghanistan).
They can even go through win one win each given their strong NRR compared to the sides that sit below them in the table. That said, Australia has relatively easier fixtures in hand than New Zealand as two of their three games are against the two bottom dwellers, England and Bangladesh.
Afghanistan
Remaining opponents: Netherlands, Australia, South Africa
The win against Sri Lanka on Monday (Oct 30) has raised the hopes for Afghanistan big time and are the side best placed among the ones out of top four. The straightforward scenario for them is win all their remaining games and hope at least one of South Africa, Australia, or New Zealand finish below them. Afghanistan’s NRR is -0.718 which puts them in a handicap should they get tied on points with any of the top four teams – a scenario that is likely to happen if they get to only ten points and other sides above them also gets stuck on ten.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Netherlands
Remaining opponents (Sri Lanka): India, Bangladesh, New Zealand
Remaining opponents (Pakistan): Bangladesh, New Zealand, England
Remaining opponents (Netherlands): Afghanistan, England, India
All three sides currently sit on four points from six games each and can at best finish on ten points. If Australia and New Zealand win two more matches each and South Africa one, all three teams will be eliminated irrespective of their results of their remaining fixtures.
The best case scenario for each of the three teams is to win all their matches and get to ten points (they won’t eat into each other’s tally as they are doing paying against each other) and hope both Australia and New Zealand lose all theirs and stay on eight or Afghanistan drop at least one more game and not go past ten points. In case of a tie at ten points each, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are slightly better placed than Netherlands whose NRR lags at -1.277.
Bangladesh and England
Remaining opponents (Bangladesh): Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia
Remaining opponents (England): Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan
With just a solitary win in six outings, Bangladesh and England are all but eliminated but for a mere mathematical possibility. Both sides cannot afford to drop another of the six points available but even that won’t suffice should Australia and New Zealand end up winning at least one more match each.
The only way these sides can go through is via an eight point tied scenario with at least five other teams and NRR come into picture. This can happen if they win all their three matches left, at least one of Australia and New Zealand lose all theirs or Afghanistan beat Australia lose to South Africa and Netherlands. That said Bangladesh and England have the worst NRR in the competition with -1.338 and -1.652 respectively and would need wins by massive margins to do some heavy lifting on the NRR side.